Two months have passed since coronavirus first began major disruptions to American society, and the nation still lacks a clear timeline back to "normalcy."
At this point, the college football season appears on track for significant delay, shortening, alteration or perhaps cancellation altogether. The latter could be paralyzing for athletics departments that rely heavily on football revenue. That includes a larger reliance on gate revenue than its pro-sports counterparts, which enjoy bulkier TV contracts and are in better position to absorb televised games with empty stands.
Prominent ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit has been among those pessimistic about any football at all.
"I'll be shocked if we have NFL football this fall, if we have college football. I'll be so surprised if that happens," Herbstreit said on ESPN radio.
"Just because from what I understand, people that I listen to, you're 12 to 18 months from a vaccine. I don't know how you let these guys go into locker rooms and let stadiums be filled up and how you can play ball. I just don't know how you can do it with the optics of it.
"As much as I hate to say it, I think we're scratching the surface of where this thing's gonna go."
How's Wisconsin looking at the situation?
University of Wisconsin spokesman Brian Lucas acknowledged that there's a lot to consider when looking ahead at the 2020 college football season, though he didn't offer specifics.
“These are obviously unprecedented times in college athletics. There are a number of scenarios that we are forecasting and planning for. To go in depth on any of those at his time would not be prudent.”
The May 11 deadline for season ticket renewal is approaching, and Lucas declined to say how sales have fared relative to past offseasons.
“We will have a much better idea of where we stand in the days and weeks after that date," he said. "We understand these are difficult times for a number of our fans and are trying our best to be flexible and accommodate them as best we can. We have tremendously loyal fans and for that, we are forever grateful.”
Losing college football altogether could cost $4.1 billion for power-conference schools alone, and that doesn't even take the local economy into account.
Dennis Dodd of CBS asked George Washington University global health professor Dr. Ronald Waldman if he could project football starting on time.
"I'm going to say no," Waldman said. "I'm going to give you a flat no. Not because it wouldn't be possible to play a game in early September. … We're a democratic society. People will decide on the amount of risk they want to take. What if 100 people get together in a room and practice for a month?"
Sam Cooper of Yahoo! points out the financial implications are so great that it still remains difficult to envision full cancellation, even if it means dramatic changes.
"All of these financial strains are the reason why it’s hard to see the college football season being canceled outright despite the various challenges ahead," he wrote. "Without a singular voice (like a commissioner for professional leagues), it’s going to be difficult to get everybody — from conference to conference and state to state — on the same page. Many contingency plans are being kicked around, and some have even floated the idea of starting the season in the spring.
Here are some of the factors to consider:
First, colleges themselves have to reopen
For any college athletics to take place, health officials must first determine that college campuses are safe to reopen for classes, and there remains no timetable for that judgment.
The NCAA has said “reliable, rapid diagnostic testing” will be crucial for the return of any athletics. As Dan Wolken of USA Today writes: "Key among the nine 'core principles of resocialization of collegiate sport' is that universities should have plans for temperature checks, testing, isolating and contact tracing and acquiring adequate protective equipment for athletics health care providers."
Getting students back on campus won't immediately mean sporting events are ready to roll. As Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine said, large sporting events will be "the last thing we check off the box."
"It is also important to take into consideration that there will not be a quick, single day of re-emergence into society,” NCAA chief medical officer Dr. Brian Hainline said. “We will re-emerge in a manner that recognizes COVID-19 will be around until there is an effective vaccine, treatment or both. That is why resocialization should be rolled out in a phased way that helps assure sustained low infection spread, as well as aids in the ability to quickly diagnose and isolate new cases.”
Most agree that two months will be needed to prepare for the season
With no spring practices, training facilities shuttered and team personnel scattered, most agree it will take at least two months of preparation to get ready for a college football season. If there is somehow an all-clear by July 1, there would be a dramatic impact to the recruiting calendar, but the 2020 season could presumably get underway on time.
Dodd at CBS points out that some coaches have suggested the schedule could still be played in full with an all-clear by Aug. 1.
After that, it stands to reason that programs will eliminate nonconference games, a potential devastating financial blow to the smaller programs that rely on the infusion of money from battles against power-conference opponents. Schools are already smarting financially from losing out on NCAA Tournament revenues from the winter season.
"The domino effect, I would have to imagine, would be devastating to those schools," TCU athletic director Jeremiah Donati said in a lengthy ESPN piece looking at college football. "We play an FCS opponent this year, and it's pretty widely known that they rely on the revenue they get from the guarantee to play Power 5 schools. I can't speak for all of them, but if you play two or three of those, that can be anywhere from $2 million to $4 million, and for a smaller school, that's huge, that's your lifeline. To pull that away would be absolutely crushing."
The optics and logistics
Northwestern athletics director Jim Phillips is among those who have said it wouldn't be appropriate to play football without fans, because that would mean the risk is too great for even the team to congregate.
Logistically, what happens if some states observe more strict rules than others, as is likely to happen, during a gradual return to normalcy? What happens when some teams take the field with only a few weeks of preparation when the opponent has had access to training facilities for several additional weeks? What happens to schools that don't play in a conference, like Notre Dame, when nonconference schedules are eliminated?
OK, football likely won't start on time. Could it start eventually, though?
ESPN sorts through a number of fascinating scenarios, including starting the season after the Super Bowl for a spring season.
"(A spring schedule is) getting more and more discussion," said American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco. "Would you be able to play right after the Super Bowl and play an eight- or 10-game schedule and still have a short playoff? You probably could, and you might try hard to do it because football is so important on a lot of levels, but the financial (impact) is huge."
There are hurdles to that, starting with safety. ESPN points out, "A full spring 2021 season combined with a full fall 2021 season means players could log 24 regular-season games in 10 months or so. Add in postseason play, and the number of games for top teams approaches 30. Even if both seasons were shortened, players would have less time to rest and recharge, or rehabilitate from injuries."
The weather will be a challenge — who's excited for a Madison football opener in February? The regular season would also run side-by-side with the NCAA basketball tournament among other unique television scheduling conflicts.
Problems that would need to be solved later: When would the following football season begin with another round absent spring preparation? What happens to the recruiting calendar? What happens to the NFL draft and pro-scouting events like the Senior Bowl or combines? Would top players like Trevor Lawrence of Clemson skip the season altogether to instead prepare for his pro career?
But here's the biggest issue: Given that epidemiologists have suggested that COVID-19 could surge again from December to February, would a delay in the schedule even help? A vaccine is still unlikely to be available by then, though the medical community could have a better handle on treatment methods. Would that be enough?
ESPN asked Dr. Jonathan Meyer, an epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist at the University of Washington.
"Even some of the medications, expecting that they'd be ready by January for any kind of mass distribution, I think is being really overly optimistic and certainly not the vaccine," he said. "I don't really see a delay of three months making much difference. Better than nothing. It would buy some time and result in conditions where decisions don't have to be made quite as soon. But I think that's being overly optimistic."
There's reason to believe a lost season could generate a massive shockwave that's felt for years.
"If we don't have college football, almost every athletic department is going to be bankrupt," a Power 5 coach said to ESPN. "We support every other sport other than maybe men's basketball, so I would think every AD and every commissioner would do anything they can to have the season. For one year, if it's a nontraditional season, who cares?"
What about the game at Lambeau Field?
Lucas did say the Badgers' scheduled showdown with Notre Dame on Oct. 3 at Lambeau Field would follow the same scheduling parameters as any other game on the schedule.
“We have tremendous partners in Notre Dame and the Packers for our game at Lambeau Field on Oct. 3," he said. "We do not anticipate anything impacting that game differently than any other game on our upcoming football schedule.”
JR Radcliffe can be reached at (262) 361-9141 or jradcliffe@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @JRRadcliffe.
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Can we really expect college football to start on time in the fall? Here's what national experts are saying - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
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