Are you ready for Alabama-Clemson V or Clemson-Notre Dame III? The first is more likely than the second, but those possibilities alone are a commentary on the seventh version of the College Football Playoff.
The more things change, well, actually they didn't change much in this CFP. The four teams you see before you have now accounted for 61% of the berths in the seven-year history of the event (17 of 28). Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State represent five of the six championships won in the CFP era. Notre Dame is playing in its second playoff in three years.
For the first time, all four teams in the playoff have been here before. Also for the first time, controversy swirled around the number of games played as much as the teams' strengths themselves. Notre Dame's Brian Kelly and Clemson's Dabo Swinney made that clear again last Saturday.
But at the heart of things are the rematches. If Alabama and Clemson win their semifinals -- they are both favored, the Crimson Tide by nearly three touchowns -- they would meet in the CFP for the fifth time. Three of the previous four meetings were for the national championship.
Less likely is Notre Dame and Clemson both winning to meet for the third time … this season. The rubber match would be for the national championship. Would anyone be suffering from fatigue?
It wasn't easy getting this far. This season's Football Four were as lucky as they were skilled. Players, bowls and teams continue to opt out amid the weariness of a trying season. For those remaining, there is compelling football ahead. Let's hope we get there healthy.
With such a short runway to these games, it's already time to break down the matchups. Yes, there's a good chance we're going to see games we've seen before. More of the same? Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State were projected to be here long before COVID-19 hit. Somehow, some way, the playoff never fails to disappoint. Even when you feel like you've seen it before.
Rose Bowl: No 1. Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
The most compelling numbers: Alabama (11-0) averages a touchdown every 10.8 snaps. Notre Dame (10-1) just scored 10 points against Clemson. Yeah, the gap between the two teams might be that large.
The Tide opened as a 17.5-point favorite, according to William Hill Sportsbook and have been bet up to 20-point faorites. Could this semifinal be that bad? Yes. Yes, it could. Alabama has scored at least 52 points six times this season, including its last three games.
In the same season, Notre Dame showed it could beat a team with superior talent and lose big to that same team (Clemson). So where do we go from here? Quarterback Ian Book must revert back to the player he was for most of the season: an above-average game manager who doesn't turn it over.
The Irish have to establish the run. That's how they beat Clemson. Book probably isn't going to win this game with arm. Anything to keep Alabama off balance is welcome. Saban's defense is its "worst" since his first season in 2007 (33rd nationally). LSU proved last year it's enough to outscore teams to win a championship. The Tigers had the third-worst total defense to ever win a national title (in the wire service era since 1936). If everything else fails, we know the Tide are going to score and they're going to score big.
If there is an Alabama concern it's at center where Landon Dickerson went down late against Florida with what looked like a serious knee injury. Dickerson is a finalist for the Outland Trophy (along with left tackle Alex Leatherwood). The entire Alabama offensive line is finalist for the Joe Moore Award (best offensive line). If Mac Jones can't be protected and Najee Harris can't find holes, that's going to be an issue.
There will be tremendous stress on Notre Dame's secondary. Alabama's receivers alone average 281 yards per game. There are 111 programs whose entire passing offense doesn't average that many yards. Kelly may want to open in a nickel look on defense but that allows the second level to open up for Harris runs. Arkansas tried something called "33 Zone" stacking the secondary with defenders. Jones was held without a touchdown pass. Alabama still won by 49.
Yes, this team is dynamic. Does anyone even remember Bama is missing its best receiver (Jaylen Waddle)? The guy who stepped up to become the No. 1 (DeVonta Smith) may win the Heisman Trophy. Yikes.
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Just in time, Clemson (10-1) is humming. The running game that hadn't done much since October went for 219 yards against Notre Dame. Trevor Lawrence is back at a high level after missing five weeks between COVID-19 and game cancellations. What sets the Clemson offense apart in a semifinal setting is Lawrence's ability to run. He went for 90 yards against Notre Dame and is the Tigers' second-leading rusher. In his career, Lawrence has run for 231 yards in the postseason. Ohio State should remember how Lawrence broke open last season's Fiesta Bowl semifinal with 107 rushing yards and a touchdown.
That was 346 days ago. What has changed? Plenty. Ohio State (6-0) doesn't have J.K. Dobbins, a difference-making tailback. It doesn't look nearly as dominant having played only six games. (Yup, we're going there.) Ohio State was missing 22 players Saturday against Northwestern. How many will the Buckeyes have available for the semifinal?
Thank goodness for Trey Sermon (331 yards rushing vs. Northwestern) because something seemed off with quarterback Justin Fields. In one of the worst games of his career, Fields almost cost the Buckeyes the game with two interceptions. And this Lawrence fella can throw, too. The Clemson receivers might be the best collection of Frisbee catchers this side of Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
Swinney has the best defense among the playoff teams, and it isn't close. There is speed off the edge. Some of the nation's most active linebackers average more than 3.5 tackles for loss per game. Unless that Sermon-led running game suddenly keeps producing Fields is going to be under a lot of pressure.
Hey, at least the Buckeyes are getting a seventh game in. They'll be playing the Tigers for the third time in a CFP semifinal. Clemson is 2-0 with wins of 31-0 and 29-23 in those meetings, and this year it opens as a 6.5-point favorite, per William Hill.
Here's how our CBS Sports college football experts are picking the winners. Also check out our full College Football Playoff betting guide with picks against the spread and for the game totals.
"football" - Google News
January 01, 2021 at 03:16AM
https://ift.tt/2L7MP1e
2020 College Football Playoff predictions, picks: Familiar faces in field, but will either game be close? - CBS Sports
"football" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2ST7s35
Shoes Man Tutorial
Pos News Update
Meme Update
Korean Entertainment News
Japan News Update
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "2020 College Football Playoff predictions, picks: Familiar faces in field, but will either game be close? - CBS Sports"
Posting Komentar