6. Will Patriots rely on man coverage again?
In the first meeting between the Bills and Patriots, New England decided to play a good deal of man coverage, something their secondary executes quite effectively. The Pats play man coverage 46.5 percent of their defensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the league. It's one of the reasons the Pats defense ranks sixth in the league in opponent passer rating (86.1).
Back in Week 8, their coverage was effective enough in convincing the Bills to run the ball more than they passed it, one of only two games for Buffalo this season where that occurred. Fortunately for the Bills they averaged five yards per carry and rolled up 190 yards on the ground.
But knowing Josh Allen had his third-lowest completion percentage of the season in their first meeting (61%) will head coach Bill Belichick and his defensive staff choose a similar approach Monday night?
"Well he'll do it differently, but his general approach will be the same," surmised Cosell. "Belichick plays defense to not give up big plays. He'll try to make Josh work through his progressions. The last time they played the Patriots they played a ton of man coverage. That could be one thing that changes this time. They may not play as much man. I still believe that Belichick would prefer for Josh Allen to hand the ball off."
The reason that is even more likely to be the case is because Allen is a much-improved quarterback when facing man coverage, even since Week 8. Thus far this season, Buffalo's QB has a 114.2 passer rating against man coverage, which is the seventh-best figure in the league.
Allen has completed almost 68 percent of his passes against man coverage with 13 touchdowns against a single interception while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.
"I think when he looks at this Bills team he knows that Josh Allen is the number one weapon here," said Cosell of Belichick. "So if he can get the Bills to hand the ball off to Moss and Singletary 30 times I think he'd be fine with that. Obviously, he'd want to stop them, but it's still better dealing with them than having Josh pushing the ball down the field for 25-yard plus completions."
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December 28, 2020 at 10:50PM
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8 things to watch for in Bills at Patriots | Monday Night Football - BuffaloBills.com
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