On occasion, a Monday Mailbag question requires too much research for me to include in the weekly feature, so I end up writing it up separately as a "Mailbag leftover." I got such a question a couple of weeks ago and just now have found the time to dive into the question. Technically, it wasn't a Monday Mailbag question but rather a Monday Mailbag request. Somebody with access to the NCAA transfer portal asked me the following question:
"Why do so many more men's basketball players transfer than FBS football players?"
A simple question with no exact answer to pin down, although we can draw some theories. First, let's get to the numbers. Since the person asking the question has access to the transfer portal, he gave me the raw data to work with. These numbers are from 2.5 weeks ago, but they give us a good look at the percentage of basketball and football players who transfer.
At the time, there were 764 basketball players and 1,298 football players in the transfer portal. That only tells a portion of the story, though. I'm not too concerned with walk-ons transferring. I'm more concerned with scholarship players. Let's whittle our numbers down to scholarship athletes alone. After we do that, there were 650 basketball players in the portal and 833 football players.
In basketball, there are 4,589 scholarship Division I men slots (13 per team for 353 teams). In football, there are 11,050 FBS scholarship slots (85 per team for 130 teams). Let's take the number of transfers and divide that by the scholarship spots. In basketball, 14.2 percent of D-I scholarship players entered the portal this offseason. In football, 7.5 percent of FBS scholarship players entered the portal. That's a massive difference, nearly twice as large in basketball than football.
While I only have data on scholarship transfer portal entries for 2019-20, I do have the number of basketball and football players who entered the portal (scholarship and walk-ons) in 2018-19. It was 1,066 in basketball and 1,720 in football, which pencils out to basketball again having nearly twice as many transfers (by roster percentage) as football. Furthermore, these stats back up our numbers that basketball players transfer at a much higher rate than football players.
So what's the deal? Why do basketball players transfer at nearly twice the rate as football players? Here are my hypotheses.
1. The redshirt factor
This, I believe, is the biggest factor. The majority of college football players redshirt during their first season on campus. The majority of college basketball players do not. So when it comes time to think about a potential transfer, basketball players have the opportunity to use their redshirt year following the transfer without losing a season of eligibility. Football players rarely have that luxury because most use their redshirt as a true freshman, so if they transfer and have to sit out a season (under NCAA rules), they're also losing a season of eligibility in the process. Football players are basically trapped if they redshirt their freshman season unless they are willing to drop to the FCS level where they would be eligible immediately after a transfer. Now, this could change. The NCAA is expected to vote in May on a one-time transfer rule where athletes in football, men's and women's basketball, baseball and ice hockey could transfer once without having to see out a season. If that rule passes, it will allow more freedom for football players to transfer.
2. Basketball culture
It's increasingly rare to see a college basketball player who attends just one high school. It's baked into the bread that talented high school players will skip from school to school. Only six of the last 16 high school players to sign with Nevada played for only one high school, and two of those were overseas kids. It is in American basketball culture to move from school to school in high school and AAU team to AAU team (some played for multiple teams during the same day), so when they get to college, the culture is to move from one team to the next until you find the place where you can shine. That's not the case in football. Yes, some players will transfer as a prep player, but you don't see football academies for top recruits like you do in basketball where schools are set up as de facto basketball training facilities. The culture of the two sports at the youth level is different, which leads to more basketball transfers in college. Transfers also were a lot more commonplace in basketball than football in the 1990s and 2000s, so there isn't a stigma attached to it like there was a decade or two ago.
3. Scheme impact
I'm not saying it's easy to learn a new offensive and defensive scheme in basketball, but it's a heck of a lot easier to do so in that sport than it is in football where teams' terminology might as well be a foreign language with playbooks the size of Shakespearean plays. Playing basketball isn't rocket science. And while football isn't, either, it's a far more involved sport to learn from a schematic standpoint if you do change schools, which throws an additional road block when players are thinking of transferring. Who wants to learn an entirely new playbook in football? In basketball, you can basically run isos and pick-and-rolls on offense and switch on defense every play and get by. Not all teams do that, of course. You still have to learn a system. But it's far more rudimentary to learn a new staff's playbook in basketball than football. This issue especially impacts grad transfers, who seem more rampant in basketball than football. You can make a more seamless transition in basketball and be ready to play at full speed immediately upon hitting campus.
4. 'The Man'
I'll admit this one is far more anecdotal than evidence based, but there's definitely a "The Man" factor in basketball. Basketball players want to be the man, they wants the shots, and while there is ego in football, it's a far more team-oriented sport where 11 players all must be on the same page to have any success (more so on offense than defense). My first year covering the Wolf Pack basketball beat, then-Nevada coach Mark Fox told me every player he recruits believes he's going to play in the NBA. It's not that much of an exaggeration. Almost every player really does believe this, and if the path to that dream doesn't look good, oftentimes the fault is put on the team, coach or situation they are in rather than their own limitations, so they want to transfer to make the dream happen. I don't get the same feeling from football players. Sure, many players will blame others when they're not getting in-game reps, but there feels like more loyalty to team above self in football than basketball, and I say that as somebody who thinks players should have the right to transfer freely without penalty.
5. Getting pushed out
This one also is anecdotal, but everybody seems to assume when a transfer happens it is the player who initiates the move. That's not the case. Oftentimes, it is the coach who basically kicks the player to the curb and tells him to find a new home because he needs the scholarship (it happened at Nevada with the previous coaching staff). Schools only get 13 scholarships in men's basketball, so each one is vital. If a player isn't developing as expected, sometimes they get budged out the door. That happens in football, too, but with 85 scholarships available and maximums set for single classes and two-year periods, it's more unlikely you'll be told to "kick dirt." There's more natural attrition in football either via medical DQs or players simply quitting (because football is tough) that opens scholarships. The number of transfers resulting from coaches making the first move is an under-reported aspect to the higher transfer numbers in basketball.
Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.
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May 05, 2020 at 10:17PM
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Mailbag leftovers: Why are there more transfers in basketball than football? - Nevada Sports Net
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