There aren’t a lot of “for sures” in life.
You’ve got the usual suspects: death and taxes. And the vanquished: Red Sox/Cubs will never win another World Series.
Let’s add a new certainty: college football will be played again. We just don’t know the when and how.
But we do know the why.
Like it or not, college football drives the bus for every FBS athletic department in the country.
The schools have come to rely on the television money and ticket revenue to help fund other programs.
The system mostly works. Better for some than others.
Schools with large, dedicated fan bases thrive. In the Big Ten, that includes Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska. They regularly fill up their large stadiums and are a big reason the conference is able to earn exorbitant media rights fees. Cha-ching.
In the SEC, average attendance in 2019 was 72,735, a drop of 2,200 from ‘18. Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee and Texas A&M all regularly fill their stadiums, which seat 87,000 or more.
Schools are able to fund their other sports thanks in large part to football revenue.
Now comes the very real possibility the cash flow will be shut off or slowed because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Of course, football is not more important than the health and well-being of the players, coaches, officials, fans and media. Safety should always come first.
I am in the at-risk group and have been taking COVID-19 seriously, following the advice of doctors and scientists.
I believe the people in charge of college sports are doing the same. As disappointing as it was to see the NCAA basketball tournament canceled, it was the right decision, one that definitely saved lives.
Going forward, the same care needs to be used when considering the fate of college football.
As I see it, there are three options: Play as scheduled, delay or don’t play at all.
PLAY AS SCHEDULED
As we sit here today on May 7, it is difficult to imagine full stadiums and fans tailgating in parking lots.
But we know science is working on treatments and a vaccine for COVID-19. Medical advancements in recent years have been astounding on all fronts. Diseases that were once considered death sentences have been cured.
Miracles do happen. And the odds rise because of the massive amount of emphasis being placed on finding a solution, both in the U.S. and abroad.
I have a strong belief that help is coming and Optimistic Bob hopes for sooner rather than later.
Let’s say the ultimate answers don’t come as fast as needed. There can still be a football season.
A must: schools will have to reopen in even a limited form. The players need to be back on campus in order for a season to be possible.
Illinois administrators and others in the Big Ten seem to be leaning toward a return to somewhat normal classes. A necessary step.
There is a big difference between resuming classes and returning to football.
To get back on the field, it will require regular testing of the players and the people around them.
Obviously, nobody can play or coach if they are sick. The medical/training staffs of the teams will be the centerpiece of the decision to play or not to play. Their say will be final.
Other hurdles are in place. Like travel. Teams might have to change the way they get to the games.
Illinois is scheduled to host Illinois State (Sept. 4), UConn (Sept. 12) and Bowling Green (Sept. 19) to open the season. Easy at this end.
But the fourth game requires a flight to New Jersey to play at Rutgers on Oct. 3. And the fifth game is at Nebraska on Oct. 10. Is it safer to take a short flight to Lincoln, Neb., or an eight-hour bus ride?
Illinois’ only other trips are to Wisconsin, Indiana and Northwestern. All easy to get to by bus.
About fans in the stadiums: First, will they be willing to fill the buildings? And is it a good idea?
Until there is a vaccine, my guess right now is that the games will be played in either empty stadiums or in front of socially-distanced crowds. Instead of 60,000, capacity is reduced to 15,000. Or less.
Remember, this is not a permanent condition. Better to have the games on television with no fans than to not have them at all.
DELAY THE SEASON
Recent polls show most FBS athletic directors expect some sort of delay. They vary on how long, whether it is a few weeks or months.
Suggestions have been thrown out there to skip nonconference play and go directly to the conference seasons. That would cut into some of the longer trips for teams and keep the games more regionalized.
It’s a dramatic move that will find some resistance.
Without a full regular season, the College Football Playoff will be difficult to manage or have at all. In the old days, coaches and sports writers voted for the top teams in the country. I am an Associated Press Top 25 voter. I like the current system, where my vote doesn’t have any actual bearing on who makes the CFP or wins the national title.
One other option is to play the full 2020 season in early 2021. Start the games in February and have them wrapped up in May. This buys football time, with the hope being there is better treatment for COVID-19 by the start of next year.
Among the many issues with the spring idea is what happens to the regular 2021 season? Does it get pushed back, too?
And winter/spring football might overshadow other sports.
If the season is going to be delayed, they might as well ...
NOT PLAY AT ALL
This puts a sick feeling in the stomach. Makes me weak-kneed. And on the verge of tears.
College football has been such an important part of my life since I was a young kid. I have covered it for parts of four decades.
But, if COVID-19 cases remain high and playing football is considered unsafe, it might be better in the long run to shut it down for a year. Rip off the Band-Aid.
Live, literally and figuratively, to play another day.
Doctors and scientists will determine if this is the most logical course. And they will be fighting against public sentiment in many places. College football is king in parts of the country, including the Midwest. Being without it while waiting on a vaccine will be a gut punch. We’ve all had enough of those lately.
No matter what happens, here’s a reminder that there is hope for a return to normalcy. College football will be back eventually.
Cross your fingers, rub your lucky penny and keep the rabbit’s foot handy.
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Asmussen | College football will be back. Hopefully it's sooner rather than later. - Champaign/Urbana News-Gazette
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