Relax Ohio State football fans. The Buckeyes are officially on a bye-week and do so after looking a whole lot better than what we saw during the first few weeks.

Each week, even during a week off, we like to check in with the Football Power Index from ESPN to see what it predicts for the remainder of the games on OSU’s schedule. It’s been an up and down look, with the percentage probability of winning each game going through ebbs and flows as Ohio State started to show some warts, with a bit of a rebound over the last couple of weeks. There was even a point in which Michigan was favored to beat the Buckeyes according to the model.

But where are we now? Michigan and Michigan State both won again to remain undefeated, but Penn State dropped a close one when quarterback Sean Clifford got injured and couldn’t return in a top-five matchup with the Iowa Hawkeyes.

It all has changed what ESPN’s FPI thinks will happen with each of the six remaining games in 2021, so let’s see which way things have moved.

Oct. 23 at Indiana

Sep 18, 2021; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) throws a pass during the second half against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Memorial Stadium. Bearcats won 38-24. Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 90.1% (up from 87.9%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 76-12-5

Projected running record: 6-1

Oct. 30 vs. Penn State

Penn State’s Jaquan Brisker (1) reacts after pass coverage from himself and Daequan Hardy prevents Auburn from completing a third-down pass in the fourth quarter at Beaver Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 18, 2021, in State College. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 79.0% (up from 75.2%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 21-14

Projected running record: 7-1

Nov. 6 at Nebraska

Sep 25, 2021; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt (5) walks off the field with his head down after the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Spartan Stadium. Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 75.9% (up from 71.1%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-1

Projected running record: 8-1

Nov. 13 vs. Purdue

Purdue running back Zander Horvath (40) runs the ball during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 93.8% (up from 91.8%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 39-15-2

Projected running record: 9-1

Nov. 20 vs. Michigan State

Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III, right, celebrates after a run against Nebraska during overtime on Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Credit: USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 82.2% (up from 81.3%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 34-15

Projected running record: 10-1

Nov. 27 at Michigan

Oct 2, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh walks on the field during warmups prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 57.6% (up from 51.2%)
All-Time Series: Michigan leads 58-51-6

Projected running record: 11-1

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