I had a bad dream last night. I wouldn't call it a nightmare because it wasn't a bad dream in the horror movie sense. It was more like one of those movies that terrify you because they're so realistic. I dreamt that Michigan's nightmare football season didn't end.
The Wolverines continued spiraling out of control this weekend by losing to Rutgers. Of course, Michigan being Michigan, it didn't fire Jim Harbaugh during the season. Michigan doesn't do that. Nor did it fire Harbaugh following a 1-9 season that saw the team blown out repeatedly. Instead, there was a mutual parting of ways by both sides, as it was agreed that the project just wasn't working.
This all seems pretty normal, right? Like, maybe Michigan won't go 1-9, but this isn't an entirely implausible scenario. Well, the realness of it all only grew more terrifying as the dream went on. You see, the day after Michigan and Harbaugh announced they'd gone their separate ways, there was another press conference. One in which Jim Harbaugh was announcing his new job title.
That job title was Head Coach of the Chicago Bears.
So, yeah, I'm a little shaken today because it all seems too real! And I don't like it! Thankfully a lot is going on in the world of sports to distract me from this nightmare scenario. So let's catch up on the news and then take a look at tonight's action.
OK, let's make some money
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Cardinals at Seahawks, 8:20 p.m. | TV: Fox
The Pick: Under 57 (-115): Given how poorly Seattle's defense has played this season, it can be scary taking an under in any game it's playing in. The over hasn't gone 6-3 in Seattle games by accident. While it's concerning, this game's total is still a little too high by my estimations, and I like taking the under as long as the total remains over 56. Seattle is coming into this game banged up on offense, and the short week won't help. Tyler Lockett tore up the Cardinals the last time these teams met, but Lockett won't be 100% tonight if he suits up, which isn't a guarantee. Then there's the mash unit that is the Seattle situation at running back.
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Finally, as marvelous as Russell Wilson is, the "Let Russ Cook" campaign has cooled down in recent weeks. Wilson's going through a bit of a funk, but he's Russell Wilson, so it's not insane to think he busts out of it tonight. I'm just not anticipating it.
As for the Cardinals, they're riding high off a last-second win against Buffalo last week thanks to a Hail Mary, but last-minute comebacks that require Hail Marys aren't a repeatable approach. And while these two teams combined for 71 points only a few weeks ago in Arizona, when it comes to divisional games, I tend to find there's more value on the under in the second game between teams in a given season. Both know what to expect from the other and can make adjustments. It leads to lower scoring games.
Key Trend: The under is 4-0 in Arizona's last four road games.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's Projection Model is on a 114-74 run and has a play on tonight's spread, total and money line.
💰 The Picks
🏈 NFL
The Pick: Seahawks Under 29.5 points (+100) -- I'm doubling down a bit here. I've gone over all the reasons I like the under tonight, and the main one is that I have a lot of questions about Seattle's offense heading into this matchup. Tonight may be one of those nights when Russell Wilson puts on the Superman cape and goes off. It's more likely that he'll just be Russell Wilson, which is typically good enough, but with so many question marks surrounding him, I just don't know that he has the supporting cast. With the value being offered on this total, I'm not passing it up.
Key Trend: In the last two weeks, Russell Wilson has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions while taking 11 sacks.
🏈 College Football
Tulane at Tulsa, 7:30 p.m | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 54.5 (-110) -- Tulane's offense has gone to another level since freshman Michael Pratt was installed as its starting QB in the team's third game of the season. With Pratt as the starter, Tulane has averaged 39.9 points per game in his starts, though a 66-point performance against Southern Miss skews that number a bit. Still, one of the ways Tulane has helped its strong-armed but inexperienced QB is by putting a focus on its rushing attack. Tonight it will run into a Tulsa rush defense that ranks 16th nationally in success rate against the run. On the flip side, Tulane's defense allows only 3.33 yards per carry, which ranks 19th. These are also two top 25 defenses in pass rush rate, meaning neither QB should have a lot of time to throw. Toss in a forecast that calls for strong winds blowing throughout the night, and this feels like a game set up for the defenses to succeed.
Key Trend: The under is 9-4 in Tulsa's last 13 home games.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine expert Zack Cimini, who is 10-3 with his last 13 against-the-spread picks involving the Cardinals, has released his pick for Thursday's game between Arizona and Seattle.
💸 The DFS Rundown
Your MVP or Captain
Kyler Murray -- If you've read the first part of this newsletter, you aren't surprised to see Murray here. He's just been an absolute fantasy monster this season, both in DFS and in season-long leagues. I should know. The one team I have him on in a season-long league is 10-0 and dominating the league thanks primarily to him. He's averaging three touchdowns per game this season if you combine his passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns. And it's that rushing ability -- he's averaging 67.1 rushing yards per game -- that gives him such a high floor.
Value
Carlos Hyde -- We don't know what Seattle's situation at running back is going to look like tonight, nor do we know how the carries will be split. Among the available options, however, I like Hyde the best in this spot. The last time he saw action was in the first game between these two, and he finished with 76 total yards and a score. I wouldn't expect that much from him tonight, but he doesn't need to in order to meet the purchase price.
Full lineup advice
SportsLine's team of DFS insiders has you covered for daily fantasy sports. Mike McClure has won almost $2 million playing DFS, and Jacob Gibbs was ranked as one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy experts last year. Plus, use SportsLine's all-new DFS Optimizer to get optimal NFL DFS picks from 10,000 simulations.
💸 Thursday Night Football Props
- Kyler Murray Over 0.5 interceptions (-115)
- Russell Wilson Under 308.5 yards passing (-115)
- Carlos Hyde Under 12.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Greg Olsen Under 24.5 receiving yards (-130)
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November 20, 2020 at 04:16AM
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