While No. 3 Notre Dame has climbed up the rankings and Pitt enters Saturday with a three-game losing streak, recent history says the Irish will have trouble getting out of Heinz Field with an easy win.
The Fighting Irish and Panthers have played 71 times since 1909, and 10 of the last 12 games between the two have been decided by single digits. Given the way both of these defenses have played so far in 2020, we could be seeing a score and style something close to their last meeting, a 19-14 home win by Notre Dame in 2018.
The game features a true strength-on-strength matchup with Notre Dame carrying top-10 rushing attack averaging 261.0 yards per game behind the one-two punch of Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree at running back, and Pitt's run defense, which ranks No. 1 in the country allowing just 61.5 yards per game.
While Pitt is reeling, it's not unfamiliar with the opportunity to take down a top-five opponent at home. Notre Dame is the highest-ranked team to visit Heinz Field since No. 2 Miami showed up in November 2017 and suffered its first loss of the season. Will the Panthers play playoff spoiler again, handing Notre Dame a loss before its highly-anticipated date with Clemson next month? Any win is a good win here for the Fighting Irish, who just have one more game (next week against Georgia Tech) before that Nov. 7 date with the reigning ACC champs. Odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
Storylines
Notre Dame: While much is made of the Pitt defense, the Fighting Irish have their own defense worth highlighting as part of the analysis of this year's team as an ACC championship and College Football Playoff contender. Notre Dame has really only played two quarters of football that haven't lived up to the defensive standard of the Clark Lea era, and on the season, the Irish rank No. 4 nationally with just 11.5 points per game allowed. Only Oklahoma State (9.0 points per game allowed) is ranked higher among Power Five opponents, and there's a real bend-but-don't-break to this year's unit that's done a terrific job of forcing field goal attempts or getting turnovers when opponents get into the red zone.
But while Notre Dame seems to be in championship form in terms of running the ball and playing defense, the pass game is still a work in progress. Ian Book does a good job of leading the offense and offers an extra threat as a runner but the Irish are missing the downfield passing threat they had with Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet. Given Pitt's strength defending the run, we should anticipate some third-and-long scenarios that will test Book. How he performs will go a long way in decided whether we think this team is as close to Clemson in the ACC as it is in the AP Top 25 poll.
Pitt: Starting quarterback Kenny Pickett missed last week's loss to Miami due to injury, and could be out again against Notre Dame. Facing top-notch defenses like the ones fielded by the Hurricanes and the Fighting Irish is not ideal for a backup quarterback, but transfer Joey Yellen seems to be the guy after winning the in-game battle with Davis Beville. Yellen threw for 277 yards and a touchdown on 22-of-46 passing by the end of the game, moving the ball well in the second and third quarter but struggling to punch it in the end zone when the Panthers got scoring opportunities. That's where Pitt has to improve if it hopes to capitalize on having one of the best defenses in the country, because there were at least 16 points left on the field by settling for field goals. Pitt's three losses have come by a combined 14 points, so those missed opportunities for touchdowns are starting to add up in a way that's become the storyline of this three-game losing streak.
Viewing information
Date: Saturday, Oct. 24 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Heinz Field -- Pittsburgh
TV: ABC | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free)
Game prediction, picks
I'm not going to put Notre Dame's passing game in the spotlight for its lack of production against Louisville because the windy conditions did not allow for any kind of confidence in putting the ball in the air. Instead, I'll go back to the Florida State game, where the group picked up some confidence in the first half with senior Javon McKinley emerging as that apparent No. 1 threat. I think Book gets tested by Pitt's defensive front, and his pass catchers are ready to help him answer the challenge. Pick: Notre Dame (-10.5)
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 8, and which SEC team will pull off a shocking upset? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread -- all from a proven computer model that has returned over $4,100 in profit over the past four-plus seasons -- and find out.
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