College Football Roundup: Week Ten Shakes Up Playoff Picture - CalBearsMaven

After ten glorious weeks of the 2021 college football season, there’s a few things that we can confidently say. First, it seems to be a given that at least one top-10 team will lose each weekend. Second, Georgia has been unquestionably the nation’s best team, and after the Dawgs, there’s a jumbled mess. Lastly, this will make for an awesome last month of the season, as at least ten teams are still alive for a berth in the College Football Playoff.

Now, onto the Week 10 action.

PURDUE 40 MICHIGAN STATE 29

Fresh off a massive win over archrival Michigan and sporting a lofty #3 ranking in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, Michigan State traveled to West Lafayette to take on Purdue. The Achilles heel for the Spartans all year had been pass defense, as Michigan State came into the game ranked 127^th in the country against the pass, surrendering over 300 yards per game. That was the story on Saturday, as Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell threw for 536 yards (the 5^th most in Big Ten history) and 3 TDs. Purdue never trailed and ran away with a 40-29 victory.

For Michigan State, this one loss does not doom the season, but there is no more margin for error. The Spartans still control their own destiny for the Big Ten Championship, but will need to win out against Maryland, Ohio State, and Penn State. If they are able to win out and capture the Big Ten title, and Michigan State will still find itself in the CFP.

Though it is unlikely, the Spartans could see Purdue in the Big Ten Championship, as the Boilermakers’ second victory over a top-5 opponent this season (they also knocked off then-#2 Iowa) moved them to 6-3. Purdue is currently in a four-way tie for first in the Big Ten West, and after a tough game next Saturday at Ohio State, closes with Northwestern and Indiana. An 8-4 record looks likely, which absent a few upsets wouldn’t get Purdue to Indianapolis, but the arrow is pointed back up on the Jeff Brohm tenure.

NORTH CAROLINA 58 WAKE FOREST 55

What was actually a non-conference game between conference rivals provided the final nail in the coffin for the ACC’s 2021 CFP hopes. Wake Forest had opened at #9 in the initial CFP rankings and held a 45-27 lead midway through the third quarter after a 66-yard touchdown pass from Sam Hartman to A.T. Perry. However, behind QB Sam Howell and RB Ty Chandler, North Carolina went on a 31-3 scoring run to take a 58-48 lead before a Wake Forest touchdown with 37 seconds remaining provided the final margin.

Though this game was a giant missed opportunity for Wake Forest, because it was technically a non-conference game scheduled between the two rivals who wanted to play this year even though they did not meet on the ACC slate, the Demon Deacons are still undefeated in conference and hold a one-game lead over NC State in the ACC Atlantic. Dave Clawson needs to regroup his team quickly, because after hosting the Wolfpack next week, Wake Forest closes at Clemson and Boston College. Beat NC State, and Wake Forest would only need to split the next two games to play for the ACC title and chance at the Orange Bowl.

McDONOUGH’S MUSINGS

• At the end of this season, the Scott Frost tenure at Nebraska will likely come to an end, as despite the desire to give a favorite son all possible chances, I doubt that AD Trev Alberts will be able to look past Frost’s 15-27 overall record on the field and NCAA investigation off it. The Huskers dropped to 3-7 this season with Saturday’s 26-17 loss to Ohio State. There’s no doubt that the Huskers play hard for Frost and they have had a brutal schedule this season, with four games against top-10 teams that have all been decided by single digits (Oklahoma, Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State). However, at the end of the day, one close loss after another points to coaching issues. On Saturday, with his Nebraska team trailing 23-17 in the fourth quarter and facing a 4^th and 4 on Ohio State’s 13-yard line, Frost chose to kick the field goal rather than going for it. Chase Contreraz hooked it for his second miss of the day, and the Huskers never threatened again.

• Frost’s likely dismissal feels like a reality check for a Nebraska program that since the Tom Osborne era has had an outsize view of its importance to the greater college football world. The Husker fan base ran Frank Solich, Bill Callahan, and Bo Pelini out of town because nine-win seasons weren’t good enough, but those years must feel like the glory days now. Nebraska has little in-state high school talent, no longer has a direct connection to the fertile Texas recruiting grounds after leaving the Big 12, and no longer has the competitive advantage they once did in strength and conditioning. Scott Frost was the hottest name on the market when he took the job after leading UCF to an undefeated season in 2017 (in addition to being a local hero). If he can’t win at Nebraska, who can?

• Speaking of coaching changes, TCU announced that longtime coach Gary Patterson had resigned following last week’s loss to Kansas State. Patterson, whose name was always tossed around for bigger jobs but had remaining fiercely loyal to the school, had been at TCU for 20 years and finished with a career record of 181-79. In addition to two national coach of the year awards in 2009 and 2014, Patterson took the Horned Frogs to 17 bowl games and shepherded the program from the tatters of the Southwest Conference to Conference USA, the Mountain West, and finally back to Power 5 football in the Big 12. Even though it probably was time to mutually part ways, the TCU community and college football as a whole should recognize the job that Patterson did. In the first game of the post-Patterson era under interim coach Jerry Kill, TCU stunned #12 Baylor 30-28.

• With the USC, LSU, and TCU jobs now open and others (Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Washington) potentially coming onto the market, there will be a number of high-profile job openings this season. One that was not expected to be added to the list, though, was Florida. However, the Gators were embarrassed 40-17 on Saturday against a South Carolina team playing its third string QB, Jason Brown (who had transferred from an FCS program). Even with some of its roster unavailable due to a flu bug, Florida looked completely disinterested and saw a South Carolina team that had struggled to beat Vanderbilt two weeks ago before losing by 30 to Texas A&M race out to a 40-10 lead. Staff changes were going to be a sure thing in Gainesville after the season, but suddenly Dan Mullen doesn’t look so safe. In addition to his bizarre comments this week minimizing Florida’s recruiting struggles, Mullen’s Gators have lost four of five games and are only 2-8 in their last ten games against Power 5 opponents. The good news for Mullen is that Florida closes with a glorified scrimmage against Samford before traveling to Missouri and hosting Florida State, and thus should finish 7-5, which should be enough to save Mullen’s job. However, drop any of those games and all bets are off – the Gator fanbase is not known for being patient, especially given archrival Georgia’s ascent.

• The legacy college football media (looking at you ESPN) was up in arms this week when Cincinnati debuted at #6 in the initial CFP rankings. Though I too expected the Bearcats to be higher, I didn’t have a huge problem with where they were ranked, because there is plenty of football left to be played. Already, one team in front of them lost this week. The issue for Cincinnati is that other than Notre Dame, their opponents are doing them no favors. The Bearcats thought that a victory at Indiana would look good to the committee, but the Hoosiers have completely collapsed this season and are winless in the Big Ten. Cincinnati’s 38-24 victory over Indiana on a day where the Hoosiers committed four turnovers (including three in the red zone) pales in comparison to Michigan’s 29-7 victory over Indiana, let alone Ohio State’s 54-7 dismantling. Additionally, Cincinnati’s toughest remaining opponent is SMU, but after starting 7-0, the Mustangs have dropped two in a row. This year’s CFP committee seems to place emphasis on wins over ranked opponents and uses performance against common opponents as a tiebreaker -two things that are not working in the Bearcats’ favor right now. It also doesn’t help that Cincinnati looked unimpressive for the third week in a row and needed two goal-line stands to beat Tulsa, a team Ohio State beat 41-20.

• After the results of Week 10, here is how I think the committee will rank the CFP top-ten on Tuesday:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Cincinnati
6. Michigan State
7. Michigan
8. Oklahoma
9. Notre Dame
10. Oklahoma State

• The above rankings are the only way that the CFP committee stay true to what they communicated last week:

• Committee chair Gary Barta said head-to-head results mattered in keeping Oregon above Ohio State in the initial rankings, and thus one week after Michigan State beat Michigan, the committee will have to keep the Spartans above the Wolverines, despite MSU’s loss to Purdue.

• Additionally, it is obvious the committee does not respect the Big 12, given the fact the Sooners checked in 8^th in the initial rankings – behind one-loss Michigan. It would not make sense for Oklahoma to vault up in the rankings over Michigan without playing, especially with the Sooners’ best win (Texas) losing again.

• Therefore, unless the committee jumps Notre Dame over Oklahoma, Michigan, and Michigan State after ND’s victory over 2-7 Navy – or just completely disregards the criteria it outlined last week – the floor for Michigan State is sixth, followed by Michigan, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame. Oklahoma State enters the top-10 after Wake Forest’s loss.

BIGGEST WINNERS OF THE WEEKEND

• Sam Howell – Coming off a strong performance against Notre Dame in a 44-34 loss last week, Howell carried North Carolina to a 58-55 victory over previously unbeaten Wake Forest with 320 total yards and 3 TDs. Howell’s draft stock had taken a hit given North Carolina’s disappointing season, but in a weak QB draft class, he has reestablished himself as a potential first-round pick.

• Wisconsin – The Badgers have rebounded from a 1-3 start with five straight victories and demolished Rutgers 52-3 on Saturday. Wisconsin has the inside track to claim the Big Ten West title, and its defense will keep it in the game against whoever emerges from the Big Ten East.

• Oregon – The Ducks had a great start to the week when they opened at #4 in the initial CFP rankings, and then ended the week by stifling archrival Washington on the road in rainy Husky Stadium. With Michigan State’s loss, Oregon should move up to #3 this week.

• The coaching hot seat – With the USC, LSU, and TCU jobs already open, here’s a look at how some other coaches on the hot seat fared this weekend. It figures to be a busy offseason:

• Justin Fuente (Virginia Tech) – lost 17-3 at Boston College in a game the Hokies threw for only 73 yards

• Jimmy Lake (Washington) – lost 26-16 at home to Oregon, made headlines earlier in the week for criticizing Oregon’s academics, and is now under investigation for shoving a player during the game

• Scott Frost (Nebraska) – lost 26-17 to Ohio State in a game marked by special teams miscues and clock mismanagement, hallmarks of the Frost era

• Dan Mullen (Florida) – lost 40-17 against South Carolina and his team appeared to quit on him in the Gator’s third straight loss

BIGGEST LOSERS OF THE WEEKEND

• Michigan State – Well, that didn’t take long. One week after beating archrival Michigan, the Spartans had no answer for Purdue. The Spartans gave up 536 yards through the air and absolutely must fix what is now the worst pass defense in the country before taking on Ohio State and the nation’s sixth-ranked pass offense in two weeks.

• Minnesota – The Gophers inexplicably opened at #20 in the initial CFP rankings, presumably so the committee could justify ranking Ohio State #5 on the strength of a “quality win”. Minnesota rewarded that faith by losing 14-6 against Illinois at home. No team that has losses Bowling Green and Illinois should be anywhere close to the rankings moving forward.

• Mississippi State Kickers – The Bulldogs were one of the surprises of the initial CFP rankings, coming in at 17^th despite a 5-3 record. They won’t be there next week, though, after losing 30-28 against Arkansas in a game that featured three missed field goals between two kickers. In his postgame press conference, Mike Leach announced open kicker tryouts for any Mississippi State student.

• Auburn – The Tigers lost control of their own destiny for the SEC Championship game and saw their dark horse CFP bid come to an end in a 20-3 loss at Texas A&M. QB Bo Nix had been playing the best football of his career the last few weeks but fell back to his old ways with two turnovers, completing less than 50% of his passes, and averaging only 3.9 passing yards per attempt.

BIGGEST GAMES OF WEEK 11

Note – rankings reflect the November 7th AP rankings

• North Carolina at #25 Pittsburgh (Thursday)
• #2 Cincinnati at South Florida
• #9 Michigan at #23 Penn State
• #4 Oklahoma at #18 Baylor
• Northwestern at #20 Wisconsin
• #1 Georgia at Tennessee
• Purdue at #6 Ohio State
• #11 Texas A&M at #12 Ole Miss
• #21 NC State at #13 Wake Forest
• #7 Notre Dame at Virginia
• TCU at #10 Oklahoma State

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