The Week 11 NFL schedule kicks off when the New England Patriots (6-4) visit the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) on Thursday Night Football. The Patriots are looking to extend their win streak to five games in this primetime contest. The Falcons will try to get back on track after being handed a disastrous 43-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday. The over has hit in all but one of the Patriots' last six games.
Kickoff from Mercedes Benz Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. New England is favored by 6.5 points in the latest Falcons vs. Patriots odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 47. Before locking in your Patriots vs. Falcons picks, make sure you check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 11 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-89 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Patriots vs. Falcons 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's Thursday Night Football picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Falcons:
- Falcons vs. Patriots spread: Patriots -6.5
- Falcons vs. Patriots over-under: 47 points
- Falcons vs. Patriots money line: New England -300, Atlanta +240
- NE: Patriots are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games
- ATL: Under is 5-0 in Falcons' last five Thursday games
Why the Patriots can cover
Bill Belichick has New England's defense playing at a high level this year. The Patriots are ranked sixth in the NFL and allow 328 total yards per game. Despite trading All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore to the Carolina Panthers, New England still boasts a top-10 pass defense.
The Patriots allow 220.1 passing yards per game with a quarterback rating of 75.7. The unit has completely dominated the past two weeks. In Week 9 against the Panthers, the Patriots held Carolina to six points and 240 total yards of offense. Carolina only threw for 162 yards in that matchup. In Week 10 against the Browns, the defense balled out again, holding Cleveland to seven points with 217 total yards of offense. The Browns only managed to throw for 118 yards.
Why the Falcons can cover
Matt Ryan has completed 68 percent of his passes for 2,274 yards with 15 passing touchdowns. The Boston College product has thrown for more than 300 yards in four games this season. His best outing came in Week 9 against the New Orleans Saints, when he went 23-of-30 for a season-high 343 yards and two touchdowns.
Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts leads the team with 40 catches for 606 yards and a touchdown. Pitts is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses due to his unique combination of size, speed, and sure hands. The 2021 fourth overall pick leads Atlanta with 67.3 receiving yards per game. Pitts recorded back-to-back 100-yard performances against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, combining for 16 receptions for 282 yards with one touchdown.
How to make Falcons vs. Patriots picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over the total, projecting the teams to combine for 47 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's Falcons vs. Patriots picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Patriots vs. Falcons on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Falcons spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,500 on its NFL picks, and find out.
"football" - Google News
November 18, 2021 at 10:10PM
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Falcons vs. Patriots odds, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions by NFL model on 128-89 roll - CBSSports.com
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