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Mike ClayESPN Writer
Welcome to the Week 11 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your game-by-game guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for both season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for borderline starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Sunday and Monday games will be added later in the week. Check back to see what Mike Clay has to say about all of your fantasy roster's Week 11 chances for success. Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, though at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Lineup locks: None
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Mac Jones is on the rise and has a pair of top-eight fantasy showings over the past month, but note that he has no other finishes better than 17th this season. It's a good matchup as Atlanta has allowed the third-most QB fantasy points and touchdowns, but Jones hasn't done enough to warrant serious QB1 consideration. The same goes for Matt Ryan, who has two top-10 fantasy weeks this season, but also two finishes outside of the top 30 over the past three weeks. He should be benched against a New England defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy QB points (and more than 17 fantasy points to the position only twice).
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Damien Harris (concussion) was out last week, but he had 14-plus carries and 10-plus fantasy points in five straight games before getting hurt. He lacks upside, with one weekly finish better than 15th, because of a minimal passing-game role and it's possible he'll lose work to impressive rookie Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson filled in for Harris with a 20-100-2 rushing line last week. Stevenson has 13-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games and will be a solid RB2 if Harris is out -- and still on the flex radar if Harris plays. The two backs are set up with a terrific matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
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Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is questionable, which is the only reason fantasy's RB9 is not listed as a lineup lock. If he's out, Mike Davis (four carries, one target on 20 snaps last week) and Wayne Gallman (15 carries, two targets on 22 snaps last week) figure to split backfield duties. Though he did get some early run, most of Gallman's Week 10 carries came in the second half of a blowout loss, so Davis (10-plus fantasy points in 6 of 9 games this season) would be the better RB2/flex play.
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Jakobi Meyers finally caught his first NFL touchdown last week, but the reliable slot receiver has a total of just seven targets over his past two games and only three weekly finishes better than 35th this season. He's a WR3/flex. Kendrick Bourne scored a career-high 24 fantasy points and reached 100 scrimmage yards for the first time in his career last week, but the journeyman has seen four or fewer targets in 7 of 10 games this season. He's a bit of a boom/bust deep-league flex. Atlanta's wide receivers can't be trusted, as their No. 1 option, Russell Gage, has posted a pair of zero-point efforts over the past three weeks. That's especially the case against a Patriots' passing defense that has allowed an NFL-low 109 WR receptions this season.
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Kyle Pitts' last top-10 fantasy outing was in Week 7 and he has been held under 10 fantasy points in 6 of 9 games this season. He's also facing a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest receptions and yards, and the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Pitts' huge target share keeps him in the TE1 mix, but a dud is very possible. Hunter Henry has scored seven touchdowns in his past seven games, but he's also seen a maximum of four targets in his past five games. You're betting on a touchdown if you put him in your lineup.
Over/Under: 44.8 (10th highest in Week 11)
Win Prob: Patriots 79% (3rd highest)
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November 18, 2021 at 07:32PM
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