Notre Dame sits at 8-1 on the season and ninth in the newly released College Football Playoff rankings.  The Irish moved up one spot from last week but need a lot of help in order to go from ninth to the top four, especially with no ranked opponents and real chances to impress the nation remaining.

But how crazy would things have to get in order for Notre Dame to make the College Football Playoff?  Despite being unlikely, I still have fun each week trying to make their chances the highest I can on FiveThirtyEight.

Here is what I figured out this week and why Notre Dame fans may have to adapt red as their favorite color for the next month.

Notre Dame needs to win out - obviously

It’s obvious but Notre Dame needs to win out.  Notre Dame’s chances to make the College Football Playoff start at 14% but move up to 32% simply by just winning their last three games, something most fans and observers think they’ll do.  For whatever it’s worth, FiveThirtyEight gives Notre Dame a 45% chance to win their three remaining games with a 61% chance to beat Virginia this week.

SEC: Go Dawgs!

USA TODAY Network – Joshua L Jones

Georgia sits unbeaten at 9-0 and is clearly viewed as the nation’s top team.  Notre Dame needs Georgia to keep doing it’s thing and theoretically have a two-loss Alabama team eliminated from CFP contention:

Notre Dame chances if Georgia goes 13-0: 35%
Notre Dame chances if Alabama goes 12-1: 25%
Notre Dame chances if Texas A&M goes 11-2: 24%

Big 12 Craziness:

Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma has been tested plenty this year but they’re still yet to fall.  The 9-0 Sooners have remaining tests with Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State as well as the Big 12 Championship game.  If the Sooners win out they’ll be a lot higher than the eighth spot they currently sit in, one would think.

Notre Dame’s chances at a CFP berth if each of the following Big 12 teams win out:

Oklahoma: 22%
Oklahoma State: 26%
Baylor: 34%
Iowa State: 43%

Also worth noting is that if Baylor simply beats Oklahoma this weekend and nothing else besides Notre Dame finishing 11-1 goes into the equation, Irish chances improve to 36%.

Cincinnati to Lose

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Why does the Michigan-Michigan State thing matter so much this week nationally?  Because there isn’t a hard stance on head-to-head results which is good news for Notre Dame.

The Irish need Cincinnati to lose, plain and simple.  I don’t think Notre Dame should be able to pass a potential one-loss Cincinnati team seeing as they played and the Bearcats won straight up, but the math at FiveThirtyEight says it needs to happen:

Notre Dame (11-1) chances if Cincinnati isn’t guaranteed to win out: 32%
Notre Dame (11-1) chances if Cincinnati wins out: 14%

Big Ten West to Erupt

Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Notre Dame needs help and the place it could get the most is from the Big Ten West.

Notre Dame CFP Chances if _____ wins out/wins Big Ten Championship:
Wisconsin: 47%
Purdue: 38%
Iowa: 33%
Ohio State: 25%
Michigan: 22%
Michigan State: 21%

So go jump around, Boiler up, and lift your burrito in order to back those teams from the Big Ten west.

Go Utes!

Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

The Pac-12 finally has a second ranked team after Utah fired Stanford into the sun (figuratively, of course) last week.  Notre Dame now could really use the Utes to run the table and eliminate the Ducks from the CFP.

Notre Dame CFP Chances If…
Oregon wins out: 16%
Utah wins out:  40%

Highest Chances...

The FiveThirtyEight chart is fun to play with and you can do it for any of the 32 teams that make its chart.  Below is the highest combination I could get Notre Dame’s CFP chances to be without being told my combination of events was too unlikely (under 0.25% chance) to project:

Combination 1: Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Iowa State all win out
Gives Notre Dame a 57% chance at making CFP

Combination 2:  Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Utah all win out
Gives Notre Dame a 55% chance at making CFP

Combination 3: Notre Dame, Iowa State, and Utah all win out
Gives Notre Dame 49% chance at making CFP

It’s worth noting that these combinations of happening are so unlikely that simply trying to add Georgia to win out to any of them resulted in the chart stopping things by saying the odds of my combination are too unlikely to actually project from.

Even with that it was fun and now you know why if you’re a Notre Dame fan, you’ll be rooting for the red of Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Utah especially over the final month of the regular season.

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