There’s a question I’ve been pondering as it relates to USC football: Did the Trojans burn their best shot at a New Year’s Six bowl in the post-Sam Darnold era this past season?

It’s a fair question to ask with the number of people moving on and declaring for the NFL draft. There’s a lot of talent leaving the Trojans this year, and though Kedon Slovis will be back for his third straight year as a starter, he’s also going to have less to work with in 2021.

The Trojans aren’t just losing offensive talent in Tyler Vaughns and Alijah Vera-Tucker; they’re also losing significant defensive talent in Olijah Griffin and Talanoa Hufanga. The secondary is going to look different next season, and so is the defensive line.

It is worth mentioning that the Trojans pulled in the No. 1 player in the entire nation, Korey Foreman. He will almost certainly be starting on the defensive line next season. Yet, he still has to settle in and learn what defensive coordinator Todd Orlando is going to ask of him. Also, one man does not a defense make.

Slovis and the Trojans will have replacements for some of the outgoing talent. The Trojans are also in the market for one of the best offensive tackle transfers in former 5-star Wayna Morris. He could change the picture of that offensive line in a hurry. So, it’s not as though the Trojans are going to be severely lacking in talent whether they land Morris or not. They’ll have dudes; the question is how far along they’ll be by the time they take the field.

The Trojans ran the table in the 2020 regular season and that task is going to get considerably harder in 2021, if nothing else because they’ll definitely be playing more than five games. Even if the pandemic is still raging, teams will use their 2020 experience to deliver the same product in 2021. If the vaccine rollout under the new presidential administration goes well, one would suspect these players will all have been vaccinated by then and we’ll play a full season. The question remains, though: Did the Trojans burn their best shot at something significant in 2020? That question is tough to answer.

The main reason is that with the jump from half a season to a full one in 2021 — even without Alabama on the slate — the Trojans will have to play more of the Pac-12 North. Their game against Oregon didn’t go very well. Next season’s Trojans won’t be able to escape playing Notre Dame, either.

If USC doesn’t hit the mark in 2021 but gets a high-end head coach, these worries about returning to a New Year’s Six bowl game will decrease in intensity… but if the 2021 Trojans go 9-3, end in the Holiday Bowl, and retain Clay Helton for 2022, we are going to revisit this conversation about the next time USC plays in a New Year’s Six game.

It’s complicated.